CONVECTIVE FORECAST - UPDATE
VALID 16Z WED 31/12 - 06Z THU 01/01 2004
ISSUED: 31/12 16:30Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across Mediterranean

SYNOPSIS

Strong vort max at the W periphery of extensive Mediterranean upper low is crossing the W Mediterranean Sea. Modified polar air mass is wrapping around the SFC low centered over the Tyrrhenian Sea. TSTM activity over the W Mediterranean appears to be promoted by low-level theta-e advection at the nose of the modified polar air ... and strong DCVA-related forcing for upward vertical motion. Deep-layer shear is on the order of 70 knots ... and about 20 knots in the kilometer ... with minimal low-level veering. Weak thermodynamic support will limit severe TSTM threat somewhat ... but ample shear could well promote a few severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail with short-line segments and brief bow echoes. A few splitting storms could occur as well ... posing slight threat of marginally severe hail and maybe a brief tornado or two. However ... weak thermodynamic support and is precluding a SLGT ATTM.

DISCUSSION

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